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Welcome to POLITICO’s 2021 Transition Playbook, your guide to one of the most consequential transfers of power in American history.
President JOE BIDEN gave his first inaugural address today. Will the 78-year-old try to deliver a second?
“He is planning to run again,” Sen. CHRIS COONS (D-Del.), one of Biden’s friends and close allies on Capitol Hill, told Transition Playbook this past weekend. “He knows that we are at the middle of an absolute turning point, a pivot point in American history. And he's up for the challenge.”
Speculating about 2024 hours after Biden’s swearing-in is stepping on his Inauguration Day a bit, but the new president’s reelection plans will have immediate consequences.
Congress will treat him differently. Democrats eyeing their own White House runs will either be frozen in place or will be able to do the politicking that likely 2024 Republican candidates like NIKKI HALEY and South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM are already doing. And it will affect both what Vice President KAMALA HARRIS does and how she is covered when she does it.
Some outside advisers have pushed Biden to declare for or at least file for reelection immediately to quiet any lame duck talk. DONALD TRUMP filed his reelection paperwork on Inauguration Day in 2017. But Biden’s team has brushed back such counsel and insisted that Biden should be completely focused on Covid-19 and the economy rather than the next election (or at the very least appear to be focused on that).
Questions about Biden’s age and stamina hounded him during the primary and the general election.
In December 2019, RYAN LIZZA reported that Biden had signaled to aides that he was considering serving only a single term or even making a one-term pledge. That prompted Biden to publicly push back at the time: “I don’t have any plans on one term.” After he won the primary, he stirred speculation again when he told donors that, “I view myself as a transition candidate.”
But aides say he has been invigorated by victory, having finally reached the Oval Office four decades after first considering a run in 1980.
Even though Biden is older than the 45 previous presidents, history suggests he’ll run again. Every newly elected president has run for reelection since GROVER CLEVELAND did so in 1888. Some, like CALVIN COOLIDGE, LYNDON JOHNSON and HARRY TRUMAN, didn’t run a second time but had already served partial terms following the deaths of their predecessors, before winning election in their own right.
THEODORE ROOSEVELT regretted his pledge not to run again after winning reelection in 1904, according to the presidential historian H.W. BRANDS. “He later said he’d give his right arm to be able to take those words back,” Brands said.
Still, Biden wouldn’t be the first modern president to face doubts he’d run for a second term.
The day after RONALD REAGAN’s inauguration in 1981, the New York Times raised the prospect that Reagan might not run in 1984 given that he was already 69. Speculation that Reagan might not run dogged him and other ambitious members of his party for much of his first term.
Former Sen. BOB DOLE (R-Kan.) wanted Reagan to run again but griped in 1982 that the uncertainty “creates a problem for those who are sort of waiting in the wings.”
Reagan “has immobilized all the other potential Republican candidates, who wait for his decision by day and hear ‘Hail to the Chief’ for themselves in the night,” The Times columnist JAMES RESTON wrote in 1983.
He also previewed the awkward situation that could face Harris while waiting to see if Biden runs, writing in 1983 that Bush had “threatened to fire anybody on his staff who suggests that he ever thinks of running for president, which of course he thinks about all the time.”
Reagan didn’t announce he would run again until Jan. 29, 1984.
What advice would CHARLIE BLACK, a longtime Republican lobbyist who worked on Reagan’s campaigns, give to Biden? “Even if you think in your mind you’re not going to do a second term, it’s better not to say so,” he said.
Do you work in the Biden administration? Are you one of the agency review teams? Are you LADY GAGA? We want to hear from you — and we’ll keep you anonymous: [email protected]. You can also reach Alex, Theo, Megan, Alice, Tyler and Daniel individually if you prefer.
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Where's Joe
At the White House after being inaugurated as the 46th president, followed by a trip to Arlington National Cemetery with BARACK OBAMA, MICHELLE OBAMA, GEORGE W. BUSH, LAURA BUSH, BILL CLINTON and HILLARY CLINTON.
Where's Kamala
With Biden at the White House.
Presidential Trivia
With the Center for Presidential Transition
Biden talked about truth and facts today. Which president — THOMAS JEFFERSON, ANDREW JACKSON, RUTHERFORD B. HAYES or WOODROW WILSON — said the following in his second inaugural address?
“During this course of administration, and in order to disturb it, the artillery of the press has been levelled against us, charged with whatsoever its licentiousness could devise or dare."
Pro Exclusive
DOL SECRETARY PICK COULD CHANGE LABOR POLICY WITHOUT CONGRESS: Biden’s Labor secretary nominee, Boston Mayor MARTY WALSH, will be able to make changes to U.S. labor policy without Congress having to pass legislation, ELEANOR MUELLER reports.
The remaining articles and infographics in this section are exclusively available to POLITICO Pro subscribers. Pro is a smart, personalized policy intelligence platform from POLITICO. If you are interested in learning more about how POLITICO Pro can support your team through the 2020 transition and beyond, visit this webpage.
ADVISE AND CONSENT
WAIVER WARS — Sen. JACK REED (D-R.I.), the incoming chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee said today that he'll back LLOYD AUSTIN to be Defense secretary and support a waiver for him to take the job, CONNOR O’BRIEN reports.
Reed's move, though expected, comes four years after Reed said he wouldn't support another exception to the law that prohibits officers who've been out of uniform less than seven years from serving as Pentagon chief after Congress approved a waiver for JIM MATTIS.
MORE DISCLOSURES: Most of the financial disclosures filed by Biden’s Cabinet nominees have become public. The latest to come in are from XAVIER BECERRA, Biden’s Health and Human Service secretary nominee, and MICHAEL REGAN, Biden’s pick to lead the Environmental Protection Agency.
There aren’t many juicy revelations to be found in them. Becerra voluntarily cut his pay as California attorney general starting July 1, which is sort of interesting?
PSA: The Biden transition isn’t over and neither is Transition Playbook. Our plan is to keep going through the first 100 Days of the Biden administration. Tell us what you like, what you hate, and what you think we could do better at [email protected].
Agenda Setting
TOP BIDEN TWITTER INFLUENCERS — Biden transition officials heading into the administration today are fans of NATE SILVER, EZRA KLEIN, The New York Times, Vox and Pod Save America. That’s according to a new analysis of 150 public facing Twitter accounts of Biden transition officials by U.K.-based digital strategist ROB BLACKIE.
The analysis doesn’t cover everyone on the transition or the administration but reveals some of the news and information diet of the incoming administration. Nearly 50 percent follow The New York Times, more than any other media outlet.
They do not follow much conservative media other than The Economist and The Wall Street Journal and they are 37 times more likely than the average Twitter user to follow Vox (that’s the highest disparity other than for D.C. focused outlets like Capital Weather Gang).
The most commonly followed political writers and reporters are Silver (44.4% follow him), Klein (39.6%), MAGGIE HABERMAN (36.8%), MATTHEW YGLESIAS (25.7%), and DAVID FRUM (25%). Our own SAM STEIN, BLAKE HOUNSHELL and RYAN LIZZA made the top 40, too.
Among television stars and cable news hosts, RACHEL MADDOW and CHRIS HAYES reign supreme, tied at 34.7%, with STEPHEN COLBERT narrowly behind them at 33.3%.And perhaps unsurprisingly, the former Obama officials hosting “Pod Save America” are among the most followed. Among podcast hosts, they hold 6 of the top 7 spots.
GANG OF SEVEN? Rep. LINDA SÁNCHEZ (D-Calif.) is forming a team with six other female members of Congress to help push Biden’s new immigration bill through the House, LAURA BARRÓN LÓPEZ tells us. They’re calling themselves “The Closers.”
BIDEN NEEDS TO GET BUY-IN: The new president’s plan to fight Covid-19 by encouraging better masking, social distancing, testing and contact tracing requires cooperation from red-state governors, JOANNE KENEN and RACHEL ROUBEIN write.
WHAT DOES THE WORLD WANT FROM JOHN KERRY? A deep dive on the global expectations for Biden’s climate envoy via RYAN HEATH, ZACK COLMAN, KARL MATHIESEN, MAURRA FORREST and KALINA OROSCHAKOFF.
Transfer of Power
‘THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG’ — TYLER PAGER, ALICE MIRANDA OLLSTEIN, CAITLIN EMMA and ERIC GELLER report that Biden’s team fears the rocky transition may have revealed only a small fraction of the problems waiting for them across the executive branch, after the tumult and turnover that took place during the Trump years.
Exhibit A: LARA SELIGMAN and BRYAN BENDER get inside the ugly transition at the Pentagon, where Trump officials blocked Biden’s incoming administration from gaining access to critical information about current operations, including the troop drawdown in Afghanistan, upcoming special operations missions in Africa and the Covid-19 vaccine distribution program, according to new details provided by transition and defense officials.
What We're Reading
Meet Amanda Gorman, the young poet who stole the show today (The New York Times)
Who made those mittens Bernie Sanders was wearing (New York)
Inside Major Biden’s “indoguration,” featuring Josh Groban (The Wall Street Journal)
A look inside Biden’s Oval Office (The Washington Post)
The Oppo Book
In 2008, HBO premiered a film dramatizing the 2000 presidential election recount. The movie’s protagonist? RON KLAIN, now Biden’s chief of staff, who had played an instrumental role for AL GORE’s side.
Klain was played by KEVIN SPACEY in the film. At the time, Klain’s wife, MONICA MEDINA, said her husband had at least one thing over Spacey. “He may be better-looking than you and more glamorous — but you have a full head of hair, and he doesn’t!” she told Washingtonian.
Klain continues to have excellent hair.
TRANSITION TRIVIA ANSWER
That was from THOMAS JEFFERSON’s inaugural address in 1805. The author of the Declaration of Independence was clearly annoyed by his coverage. The full paragraph, via Yale Law School:
During this course of administration, and in order to disturb it, the artillery of the press has been levelled against us, charged with whatsoever its licentiousness could devise or dare. These abuses of an institution so important to freedom and science, are deeply to be regretted, inasmuch as they tend to lessen its usefulness, and to sap its safety; they might, indeed, have been corrected by the wholesome punishments reserved and provided by the laws of the several States against falsehood and defamation; but public duties more urgent press on the time of public servants, and the offenders have therefore been left to find their punishment in the public indignation.
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