3:05 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 96.3 | Spread: GB -3 (51.5)
What to watch for: If there has been anything to gripe about in Matt LaFleur's highly successful two-year run as the Packers' coach, perhaps it is being a step slow to adjust. When these teams met in Week 6, the Bucs played zone coverage on 61% of quarterback Aaron Rodgers' dropbacks, and Rodgers had his only multi-interception game this season. And in general, the more teams have played zone against Rodgers over the past two years, the better they have fared. LaFleur and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett know what's coming in terms of coverage, and how they plan for it will dictate their level of success against a tough Tampa Bay defense. -- Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady's game-winning touchdown pass will not be thrown to wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown or Scotty Miller, tight ends Rob Gronkowski or Cameron Brate, or running backs Ronald Jones II or Leonard Fournette. Nope, it will go to wide receiver Tyler Johnson. The rookie fifth-round pick out of Minnesota had just one catch last week against the Saints, but that 15-yard spinning grab on the perimeter was masterful. The only reason we aren't talking about Johnson more is the depth chart he's buried on. He has a knack for making difficult catches in high-pressure situations, and he'll do again on Sunday. -- Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The two biggest factors in Brady's performance all season have been pressure and the vertical game. In 13 wins over the course of the season (including playoffs), he averaged 1.1 sacks per game, saw pressure on 14% of his dropbacks and posted an 82 QBR. But in five losses, sacks jumped to 2.2 per game, his pressure rate climbed to 27% and his QBR nearly split in half (44). And as far as the deep ball goes, consider this: On passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield over that 18-game span, he has hit on 45% for 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions in wins, but just 21% for a single score and five picks in the losses.
Bowen's matchup key: How will Tampa Bay keep Packers wide receiver Davante Adams in check? It's going to start at the line of scrimmage in Cover 1, with Buccaneers cornerback Carlton Davis trying to use his length and physical traits to disrupt Adams' release. If he can't, Davis' lack of recovery speed versus Adams' sudden ability to separate will spell trouble for the Bucs. Read more.
What's at stake: A win for the Buccaneers would mark the first non-division champion to reach the Super Bowl since the 2010 Packers. It would also bring Brady's 10th Super Bowl appearance, spanning three decades. Rodgers, however, has played in only one Super Bowl. And after losing his past three NFC Championship Game appearances and going 1-3 over his career in this game, Rodgers is attempting to avoid becoming just the third QB to have fewer than two wins and more than three losses in conference title matchups (Ken Stabler and Donovan McNabb are both 1-4).
Injuries: Buccaneers | Packers
Betting nugget: Brady is 9-4 straight up and 6-7 against the spread in conference championship games. The under is 8-5 in those matchups, including 7-2 in his past nine. Read more.
Laine's pick: Buccaneers 26, Packers 24
Demovsky's pick: Packers 31, Buccaneers 17
FPI prediction: GB, 53.2% (by an average of 1.1 points)
Home crowd: Last week's playoff game at Lambeau Field had an attendance of 8,456. With potentially more guests of players and coaches from both teams in the stadium this week, expected attendance is in the ballpark of 8,500-9,000. That's roughly 10-11% of the 81,441 capacity at Lambeau.
Matchup must-reads: Finally, Rodgers vs. Brady: Inside the playoff matchup 13 years in the making ... 'Too much information' never enough for Packers' dominant offense ... WR Brown (knee) to be game-time call for Bucs ... Crowning achievement: Packers receivers prove worthy once and for all ... Bucs have beaten Rodgers before, but does the formula change? ... Rodgers not feeling extra pressure, says his future is 'beautiful mystery'
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January 24, 2021 at 01:17PM
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NFL playoffs: Can Bucs' defense again force Packers' Aaron Rodgers into mistakes? - Green Bay Packers Blog- ESPN - ESPN
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