CLEVELAND, Ohio - Despite dropping case and hospitalization numbers, the Ohio Department of Health’s coronavirus alert map on Thursday remained exactly the same for the fourth consecutive week - with the same 84 counties on red alert.
This is because new case totals in all but one Ohio county remain above what the health department describes as a rate of high incidence. The threshold for this is 100 new cases per 100,000 people over the last two weeks, excluding incarcerated individuals.
The rates across Ohio this week range from a 99.4 per 100,000 in tiny Vinton County to 442.1 per 100,000 in Brown County.
In the Greater Cleveland area, Lorain County has the highest rate (308.2 per 100,000), followed by Lake (295), Summit (289.1), Portage (285), Geauga (263.8), Medina (262.6) and Cuyahoga (239).
In comparison, these rates five weeks ago on Jan. 14 were: Lorain (774), Lake (762.5), Summit (724.8), Portage (667.8), Geauga (604.4), Medina (647.6) and Cuyahoga (673.4).
The alert designations were not affected by the state’s recent addition of more than 4,000 deaths from November and December, deaths that had previously gone unreported because of a data processing failure by the Ohio Department of Health.
The alert system does not factor in deaths, but rather tracks new caseloads, hospitalizations and trips to doctors’ offices and emergency rooms.
The red alert designation, according to the state’s advisory system, means there is a public emergency for increased exposure and spread, and that people should “exercise a high degree of caution.”
Counties don’t reach the red alert level until they meet at least four of seven measures being tracked. But once flagged as a red alert county, a county does not drop to a lower level until the two-week rate for new cases per 100,000 is below 100.
The only orange counties - for the 10th consecutive week - are Gallia, Hocking, Monroe and Vinton.
Beginning with Dec. 24, the red counties have been the same with the exception of two weeks in mid-January when Hamilton County was listed at the higher concern level of purple.
Cuyahoga met two of the seven criteria again this week - new cases over the last two weeks, and a case share of more than 50% outside of congregate living facilities.
All 88 counties were flagged for having more than 50 new cases per 100,000 people over the last two weeks, and 80 of the 88 counties were flagged for having a share of more than 50% outside of congregate living facilities.
The Thursday, Feb. 18, coronavirus report card for Cuyahoga County.Ohio Department of Health
The advisory system
Here’s a closer look at the advisory system Gov. Mike DeWine introduced in early July.
* 1. New cases - Alert triggered when there are 50 new cases per cases 100,000 residents over the last two weeks.
* 2. Increase in new cases - Alert triggered by an increase in cases for five straight days at any point over the last three weeks. This is based on the date of onset of symptoms, not when the cases are reported.
* 3. Non-congregate living cases - Alert triggered when at least 50% of the new cases in one of the last three weeks have occurred in outside congregate living spaces such as nursing homes and prisons.
* 4. Emergency rooms - Alert triggered when there is an increase in visits for COVID-like symptoms or a diagnosis for five straight days at any point in the last three weeks.
* 5. Doctor visits - Alert triggered when there is an increase in out-patient visits resulting in confirmed cases or suspected diagnosis for COVID-19 for five straight days at any point in the last three weeks.
* 6. Hospitalizations - Alert triggered when there is an increase in new COVID-19 patients for five straight days at any point over the last three weeks. This is based on the county or residence, not the location of the hospital.
* 7. Intensive Care Unit occupancy - Alert triggered when ICU occupancy in a region exceeds 80% of total ICU beds and at least 20% of the beds are being used for coronavirus patients for at least three days in the last week.
Rich Exner, data analysis editor for cleveland.com, writes about numbers on a variety of topics. Follow on Twitter @RichExner. See other data-related stories at cleveland.com/datacentral.
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