The darlings of the NBA bubble have to take their show on the road. It's exactly two months since Game 6 of the NBA Finals, the end of the Miami Heat's unexpected, unforgettable Finals run, and already they're facing questions about just how good they really are. If they were uniquely suited that environment, the thinking goes, then they will not stand out as much outside of it.
There is logic to that. Even if the Heat play exactly the same way, they could fare worse relative to their competition, should the numerous Eastern Conference teams that had bubble trouble -- the Bucks, 76ers and Playoff Raptors come to mind -- shore things up. The Nets are coming, too, and the Pacers are healthy.
Basketball-related concerns exist, too. Can Goran Dragic continue to play at an All-Star level again? The short turnaround can't be great for the 34-year-old, whose Orlando experience was physically demanding enough before his foot injury in the Finals. He came off the bench during last year's regular season for a reason, and Miami is going to continue to manage his minutes.
Jae Crowder, the forward who changed the team midseason, is gone. Newcomer Moe Harkless can play the 4, but isn't nearly as stretchy. If Erik Spoelstra wants more shooting, he can plug in Kelly Olynyk or Meyers Leonard next to Bam Adebayo, but there will be a trade-off on the other end.
But what if the bubble strengthened the Heat? What if making the Finals gave them more collective confidence and their young players more motivation to improve? "I'm hoping that we are learning that we belong," Jimmy Butler said in a Zoom conference on Monday. "That we're one of the best teams in this league and we can do what we know we can do, which is win a championship." Butler absolutely believes this, and he's going to run the show like he did last season.
Maybe Tyler Herro will take another step forward. Maybe Adebayo will grow as a scorer or a shooter or both. In Avery Bradley, the Heat finally have somebody to pester opposing point guards. We've seen guys like Harkless thrive in Miami after bouncing around. Spoelstra is as good as any coach when it comes to balancing lineups, and he'll have plenty of pieces to play with.
Taking the temperature
Heat believer: How could this offseason have gone better? Dragic is coming back, Harkless is a steal and Bradley fills a glaring hole. Even more importantly, Adebayo signed his extension and Giannis Antetokounmpo still hasn't. The front office structured its signings brilliantly -- player options all over the place! -- so it can compete for a title this season while preserving multiple paths toward adding another superstar. As much as I love this roster, I am just as excited about what it could look like after the trade deadline or next summer.
Heat skeptic: One way it could have gone better: They could've re-signed Crowder. The Heat's spacing made all of their playmakers more dangerous and all of their ball movement more effective. That's just not the same with Harkless, who has averaged around three 3-point attempts per 36 minutes for his entire career. Crowder attempted 8.3 per 36 minutes in Miami in the regular season and 8.8 per 36 in the playoffs.
And about the Adebayo extension: It's nice that they worked something out, and the Heat definitely got creative with everything else in order to accommodate it. But there's no getting around the fact that it makes it more difficult for Miami to lure a star free agent next offseason, whether it's Giannis or somebody else.
Heat believer: I'll miss Crowder, but mostly because you don't find many 6-foot-6 dudes who are strong enough to defend Antetokounmpo or Anthony Davis without getting eaten alive. Miami's help defense will remain as it was, though, and I don't get why you're so worried about the spacing. Spo will probably just put Leonard back in the starting lineup.
Harkless signed for one year and $3.6 million. You're not arguing that the Heat should have offered Crowder the three years and $29 million he got from Phoenix, are you? And as for it being "more difficult" to get another star, I mean, have you already forgotten how they got Butler?
Heat skeptic: If you're counting on Miami pulling off a massive sign-and-trade again, then maybe they should've paid Crowder! It's a little weird to see a team that made the Finals so concerned with flexibility instead of maximizing their chances of winning the title the following season.
This is not to say that the Heat had a bad offseason. Maybe it will be a prelude to a move that makes all of those player options look as brilliant as you think they are. That's far from a certainty, though, and I wonder who they could've added if they had tried to go all-in. Fred VanVleet? Robert Covington? Christian Wood?
Heat believer: Those are good players, but the Heat are thinking bigger. Why shouldn't they? It was probably difficult for someone as competitive as Pat Riley to not make a big splash after making the Finals, which is precisely why I respect his front office so much. Miami had a plan and executed it.
I might buy your argument about the opportunity cost if the Heat weren't bringing back such a well-rounded team. Give me one good reason they can't make it back to the Finals.
Heat skeptic: Just one? No, I'll give you four: The lack of a real stretch 4, the likely Dragic decline, the quick turnaround, the improved Eastern Conference.
Heat believer: Blah, blah, stretch 4, blah. Stop harping on Crowder. Dragic and the rest of the Heat are going to be just fine come playoff time.
It's funny that you went with "an improved Eastern Conference" here. Forgive me if I'm not worried about the new-look Atlanta Hawks knocking the Heat off their pedestal. Honestly, aside from the Nets, did any of the East's contenders get better? The Bucks still match up just as poorly with the Heat, the Celtics lost Gordon Hayward and the Raptors lost both of the centers from their championship team.
I guess the Sixers are more interesting now, but their depth isn't great and I'm not scared of that offense in a playoff setting. They could sure use someone like Butler.
Eye on: Precious Achiuwa
The Heat drafted a 6-foot-9 big man known for being light on his feet and having good defensive instincts. The Adebayo comparisons are unfair, but inevitable. Adebayo himself has even gone there, saying that Achiuwa "reminds me of myself when I was at Kentucky."
Adebayo also described Achiuwa as more skilled than he was coming out of college, and predicted the 21-year-old would have a better rookie year than he did. I'm not sure about all that, but Miami's player development program is on a hell of a run. Let's see what they can do with him.
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