CLEVELAND, Ohio — Prior to Pittsburgh’s game vs. Washington on Monday in Week 13, any thought that the AFC North would be up for grabs, even if it was a small percentage, was probably nonexistent. After all, the Steelers were 11-0 and the Browns were the next closest team at 9-3.
But the Steelers have now lost twice in a row. They lost to Washington, 23-17, and followed it up with a 26-15 defeat on Sunday night in Buffalo. Suddenly, the door is open just a little bit more for the AFC North.
Pittsburgh is 11-2. The 9-3 Browns host the Ravens on Monday night with a chance to not only get closer to locking up their first playoff bid in 18 years, but a chance to get with just a game of Pittsburgh for first in the division.
They can’t clinch a playoff spot on Monday night, but they could all but guarantee themselves a playoff spot. According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, a win vs. Baltimore gives the Browns better than a 99 percent chance to make the postseason. If they lose, it drops to 84 percent.
As for the AFC North, the Browns only had a five-percent chance to win the division before the Steelers and Bills played. Pittsburgh’s loss bumped the Browns’ odds up to seven percent. Should the Browns beat the Ravens, it goes to about 14 percent. If they lose on Monday night, those odds drop to one percent.
In other words, any chance the Browns have to steal the AFC North from the Steelers must start with a win on Monday night. Pittsburgh’s two consecutive losses have opened the door. If the Browns want to win the division, they must win to keep the door as open as possible.
The Browns also got a bit of good news in the AFC Wild Card race after the Colts routed the Raiders, 44-27.
The loss drops the Raiders to 7-6, one game behind Miami for the final spot in the AFC playoffs. That matters for the Browns because the Raiders own the tiebreaker between the two teams by virtue of Las Vegas’ 16-6 win in Cleveland in Week 8. The Browns own the tiebreaker vs. the Colts thanks to their Week 5 win, meaning that regardless of the outcome on Monday night, the Browns will still be in the No. 5 spot heading into Week 15.
Elsewhere in the AFC wild card picture, the Chiefs beat the Dolphins, 33-27. The Chiefs clinched the AFC West, and Miami’s loss also secured a playoff spot for Pittsburgh.
The Dolphins are down to 8-5, but still in the seventh spot by a game.
A win in Cleveland could give the Ravens’ playoff boost a shot in the arm. A win would tie them with Miami at 8-5 for the third and final spot in the AFC playoff picture. The Ravens end the season with games against the Jaguars, Giants and Bengals. Meanwhile, Miami has to play the Raiders and Bills in the final two games of the regular season.
Here is how the AFC playoff picture looks prior to Monday night’s game between the Browns and Ravens.
1. Kansas City (12-1)
2. Pittsburgh (11-2)
3. Buffalo (10-3)
4. Tennessee (9-4)
5. Cleveland (9-3)
6. Indianapolis (8-4)
7. Miami (8-5)
8. Baltimore (7-5)
9. Las Vegas (7-6)
10. New England (6-7)
Here are the Week 15 games involving the wild card teams.
Chargers at Raiders, Thursday, 8:20 p.m.
Jaguars at Ravens, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Patriots at Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Texans at Colts, Sunday, 1 p.m.
Browns at Giants, Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
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